Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Economic Outlook

I have a couple of discussions regarding the illusion of free will and the power of stories. Therein I shall invoke Tesla's autobiography and Plato, because apparently I like to pretend I'm smart. However, before I wax philosophical some more, I would like to discuss the more mundane matter of my bias in our current market environment.

I live and breathe the markets. Believe me, I am well aware of the cloud of pessimism that surrounds Europe, and the associated uncertainty that imposes cement galoshes on any shred of macroeconomic optimism. However, despite the pessimistic zeitgeist, no matter how scary the potential events that could occur, I can't ignore one simple fact:

Last year, we closed flat.

...so, if we don't get an earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear disaster in one of the world's largest economies, coupled with massive unrest in the world's largest landmass, compounded by discussions that threaten default in the world's largest and most liquid markets, aggravated by downgrades of major economies...

If we do better than all that, which (hopefully) isn't asking too much, well, we should maybe close better than flat? I mean, we had a nuclear meltdown, people. I'm all black-swanned out.0

And if not, well, I do have quite a lot of trust in my stops.

[0] With that said, I have recently stumbled across some literature that suggests the Indo-Pak region is one to keep a close eye on, including the borders between Iran, Afghanistan, and Balochistan. Due to recent resource and mineral discoveries, which I am working to verify, we may see some sparks here. Upon verification, this will merit its own post.


  1. by flat are you referring to the various market indices or some other metric?

    1. I refer to the market indicies here. I'm not sure I know of any other metric that would apply here?